Trump neglected US interests and wasted opportunity to solve NAME problem during Modi's visit. By Hem Raj Jain
Mention of Afghanistan, Pacific and Kashmir related terrorism from Pakistan in joint statement are meaningless due to India’s weak position (ii)- Other matters (economic, trade power etc) in joint statement are routine and doesn’t require Trump-Modi meet (iii)- Trump neglected vital interests of USA by not asking India to assist in solving crucial NAME (Syria) problem (iv)- If not handled properly US catalyzed Sunni-Shia war may become repeat of disastrous & gory Arab-spring (v)- NAME may become Waterloo for Trump if USA doesn’t have endgame in sight for NAME (Syria)
US President Trump is never tired of boasting about his power regarding negotiations and deal-making. But the way he wasted the opportunity (during Indian PM Modi’s visit to USA) to solve the most important problem (which India can help to solve in a big way) being faced by USA on foreign policy front in NAME region (the problem which may even become Waterloo for Trump) it is becoming increasing clear that if Trump does not come on ground then what to talk of damage to his political career he may even harm the vital national interests of USA as explained below: -
(1)- As far matters (economic, trade power etc) mentioned in joint statement these are routine matters and can be sorted out at Ambassadors level and doesn’t require Trump-Modi meet at personal level. The mention of Afghanistan, Pacific and Kashmir related terrorism from Pakistan in joint statements is meaningless due to India’s weak position because: -
(i)- India can’t do anything strategically / militarily in Afghanistan and Pacific (including in South China Sea) region due to Sino-Pakistan alliance (due to CPEC including Gwadar Port). India has substantial part of its surplus army in Kashmir doing civilian duty of maintaining law & order and this Indian army is encircled by Pakistani and Chinese army from three sides. If India antagonizes China (by meddling in Pacific / SCS) then China has to open some fronts on Sino-India border including in Arunachal Pradesh (which China claims as its own) and then Pakistan (even one sixth of India) with little military assistance / help from China and from active help of Jihadis from all over the world can snatch Kashmir from India military by encircling Indian military and paralyzing it by cutting its military and other supplies in Kashmir from rest of India.
(ii)- India is responsible for Kashmir problem because constitutionally secular but in fact communal Hindu majority India did not retrieve Muslim PoK during last 70 years. Hence as per adverse possession Pakistan has better claim / title on entire J&K (as Pakistan tried to snatch Kashmir from India militarily in 1947, 1948, 1965, 1971 during Kargil etc). As far Kashmir related terrorism from Pakistan both USA and India are underestimating Islam which has laid down the lives of ~ one hundred thousand Jihadis for Kashmir. Hence even if government of Pakistan wants to oblige both USA and India on this count then also it can’t do it for the fear of Jihadi (Caliphate) take-over of Pakistan especially when global Jihadi militants are taking interest in Kashmir problem and practically entire Muslim Kashmir is alienated from India after July 2016 (after killing of Hizbul Commander Burhan Wani) where what to talk of boys now even girls of schools and colleges are coming on road in Kashmir for pelting stones at security forces of India.
(iii)- India thought that Iran (where India carried out many projects including Chabahar port and roads to get access to Central Asia) is its friend who will support it on Kashmir issue but now even Iran (Ayatollah) is raising Kashmir issue and calling Muslims to unite for ‘liberating’ Kashmir.
(2)- But what is surprising is Trump did not keep NAME (Syria) problem in mind while discussing global matters with Modi. Trump should have known that India can help to solve in a big way) the problem being faced by USA on foreign policy front in NAME region (the problem which may even become Waterloo for Trump). If not handled properly and if USA doesn’t have endgame in sight for NAME (Syria) then US catalyzed Sunni-Shia war may become repeat of disastrous & gory Arab-spring.
(3)- Human rights violations in NAME Region (especially in Syria) are worst in recent human history hence something needed to be done about it. Hence (in view of lack of appetite in USA for putting American boots on ground) the leader of free world the USA was left with no other choice than to ask [from the soil of Saudi Arabia (SaAr) on May, 21 in front of leaders of ~ 50 Sunni Muslim countries] for Sunni-Shia war in order (i)- To get regime change in Iran which is desirable as State under the command of a religious leader (Ayatollah) is contradiction in term and (ii)- To get rid of Shia Jihadi militants and Shia Iran supported incompetent and brutal regimes from Sunni majority region of NAME including from Syria) [especially when Shia Iran refused to join military alliance (popularly known as Sunni-NATO) of 41 Sunni Muslim countries (headed by ex-army Chief of Pakistan General Raheel Sharif) to restore peace in NAME region by getting this region rid of both Shia and Sunni militant Jihadis including ISIS, Al-Qaeda etc. Without Pakistan Sunni-NATO is meaningless as military Alliance of Sunni Gulf countries led by SaAr could not do anything in Yemen against Shia Jihadi militants supported by Shia Iran].
(4)- But now USA is in a fix and confusion because it does not have endgame in sight with the result USA is still in Syria militarily and is not allowing / asking Sunni-NATO to enter Syria and to restore democracy and peace in Syria. This confusion of USA is due to following reasons: -
(i)- Even if unnecessarily diversionary Qatar problem is kept aside for the time being the Sunni-NATO sponsored by SaAr (a nondemocratic country) getting upper hand in NAME (including in Syria) may become global military / strategic problem
(ii)- Because of the presence of the military of Russia in Syria it may not be easy for Sunni-NATO to gain military supremacy in Syria (if USA leaves Syria militarily)
(iii)- Even after restoring democracy in Syria the Syrians may not be competent to run the democracy in view of the fact that in Muslim countries in democracy gradually medieval-thinking religious leaders gain ascendancy.
(iv)- Human rights of the individuals may still be the causality in Muslim countries of NAME (including in Syria)
(5)- These problems can be solved only when USA does the following: -
(i)- Instead of Sunni-NATO the UN Peace Keeping Force (UNPKF) and UN Election Commission (UNEC) should be used to bring peace in troubled NAME including in Syria.
(ii)- System of International Political Parties (IPP) registered at UN should be launched
(iii)- Optional protocol OP-1 of ICCPR at UN should be replaced with Mandatory protocol MP-1 along with provision of military intervention in erring countries (with an elaborate mechanism of human rights enforcement where individual citizen of any country will be able to secure his human rights by approaching UN body of human rights enforcement through ‘National Human Right Commissions’ of member countries).
(6)- Here it is needless to say that India can easily provide millions of personnel for UNPKF and UNEC if USA asks for it but Trump missed this opportunity during just concluded visit of PM Modi to USA. Prez Trump should realize that in military / strategic matters India has inherent weakness due the fact that unlike USA India did not raise guns against Britishers for independence. Moreover due to said present weakness too, in military / strategic matters India is good for nothing for USA. Hence under military protection of USA once India goes successfully on said military mission to NAME (Syria) then India will gain military confidence and will be able to become real strategic partner of USA and will be able to fulfill the military / strategic expectations of USA (the leader of free world) in other parts of the world.
It is hoped that Prez Trump will do course correction and will still ask India to provide adequate personnel for UNPKF and UNEC for the purpose of bringing peace and stability in NAME region (including in Syria). otherwise (USA should make no mistake about it that) if not handled properly the US catalyzed Sunni-Shia war may become repeat of disastrous & gory Arab-spring and without endgame in sight NAME may not only become politically the Waterloo for Trump but it may also harm vital national interest of USA.