India should know: John Kerry apprehension about Iran war increased after UNGA. By Hem Raj Jain
India should be prepared for Jew-Sunni v/s Shia Iran war to be facilitated by USA (ii)- Response of Europe after November,4 will decide only intensity of war (iii)- India will have to do fine-balancing act.
--Former US Secretary of State John Kerry already warned of increased risk of war with Iran after President Donald Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal as mentioned at https://kashmirobserver.net/2018/world-news/kerry-regional-leaders-pressed-us-bomb-iran-36768 OR
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/10/06/576191/Regional-leaders-pressed-US-to-bomb-Iran . But now the chances of Iran war have crossed the danger mark after â€˜UN General Assemblyâ€™ (UNGA) this year. The drum-beats of impending war were sounded this year at UNGA where not only President Trump criticized Iran extensively for making Nukes and for creating troubles in Sunni-majority countries west of Iran (in NAME region) but more decisively by Israel PM Netanyahu who showed the pictures of Iranian territory where Nukes are allegedly being made as given at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs2djuHOdik
Said Iran war will have not only external implications for India but internal too in view of ~ 200 million Muslims (including illegal immigrants) in India (both Sunni & Shia) hence India will have to do fine-balancing act in view of given below:-
(1)- Amid fears of US sanctions under CAATSA (â€˜Countering Americaâ€™s Adversaries Through Sanctions ACTâ€™) over the $ ~ 5.2 Billion last week S-400 â€˜Long range surface to air missile systemâ€™ deal with Russia, the Army chief Gen. Bipin Rawat asserted that India follows an independent policy as mentioned at - https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-follows-an-independent-policy-says-army-chief/articleshow/66108231.cms . Moreover in view of stringent sanctions to be imposed by USA against Iran to the extent that any country who will import oil from Iran after November, 4 will also come under these sanctions, the Oil- Minister Dharmendra Pradhan said India has its own energy requirements which it has to fulfill hence two state refiners have placed orders for importing crude oil from Iran in November as mentioned at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-to-import-crude-oil-from-iran-in-nov-despite-us-sanctions-pradhan-118100800581_1.html .
(2)- India is going ahead on S-400 with Russia and with oil imports from Iran by assuming that USA (like past) will provide waivers from these two sanctions to India. But India has to keep in mind that this time the issues are not that simple. This time India should be prepared not merely for a situation of said waivers or no waivers but also for a much serious situation of impending Jew-Sunni v/s Shia Iran war to be facilitated by USA.
(3)- The over-influence of Israel on Trump-administration has been evident also the way the USA (under Israelâ€™s pressure) came out of â€˜Iran Nuclear Dealâ€™ (which was signed with UNSC, European Union, Permanent Members of UN, Germany as signatories), stringent sanctions to be levied on Iran after November 4, 2018 and shifting of US Embassy (despite protests from entire Muslim world and others) to Israelâ€™s new capital Jerusalem.
(4)- Only a politically naÃ¯ve will think that USA will ignore it and will not destroy militarily the alleged nuclear stock and its manufacturing facilities in Iran, especially when Israel has shown its pictures at UNGA 2018. In a nut shell Israel has roped-in USA to wage war against Shia Iran by the forces of Sunni Countries under US influence (west of Iran led by Saudi Arabia who want to humble alleged trouble-maker Shia Iran). This war will be fully supported by USA and Israel may be not openly but not so clandestinely too.
(5)- No doubt the response of European countries (especially of UK, France and Germany) will be crucial but only in deciding the intensity of this war. Because USA would (as it canâ€™t tolerate what Netanyahu has shown through pictures at UNGA) go alone in case Europe decides to remain with Iran Nuclear Deal and does not support stringent US sanctions against Iran after November, 4. It is a forgone conclusion that China and Russia (which is under immense influence of China after Ukraine / Crimea crisis and in any case against Sunni Countries due to Syria) will support Iran to ensure at-least immense harassment if not a bloody nose to USA.
(6)- During Obama administration USA lost its clout as military power in Ukraine (where Crimea was snatched by Russia without shedding a drop of blood despite Budapest Memorandum in which it was the responsibility of also the worldâ€™s supreme power USA to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine), in Syria where what to talk of US demand of removing Assad regime, Russia intervened militarily which has further strengthened Assad and in South China Sea where China instead of availing review facility chose to defy judgment of international tribunal against the interests of US Allies in Pacific region.
(7)- India should not forget that in its entire history the USA has not lost any war (including war of its independence where unlike India it raised guns against Britishers). Even in Vietnam USA came out due to domestic pressure and not due to any military defeat. Unlike Chinese sea (where there is no direct military confrontation) in Ukraine and Syria there is direct military confrontation with Russia which USA does not want because it will shed the blood of Christians on both sides (the NATO & Russia). But in said Iran war blood will be shed mainly of Muslims (Shia & Sunni) on both sides which USA does not mind.
(8)- Hence Trump administration (in order to prove that this is the more strong & patriotic administration than the previous one) will not like to miss this opportunity of said Jew-Sunni v/s Shia Iran war especially when USA will mostly not be required to put boots on ground because most of the blood in this war will be provided by Muslims on both sides (the Sunni & Shia) and their Jihadis who in any case do not mind it because of their lure of martyrdom as they misguidedly say â€˜Allah ko pyari hai qurbaniâ€™ (â€˜Allah loves martyrdomâ€™). In a nutshell India should avoid coming on the wrong side of USA in said Iran war.
(9)- On the other hand in case India is seen by China (having immense influence even on Russia from where India is getting S-400) to be siding with USA against Iran in this war, then China can always rely on its ally Muslim Pakistan to ignite issue of Muslim Kashmir, militarily (with crucial Chinese military support, howsoever small). India should know that even USA will not be able to provide all-out support to India on Kashmir because the human rights of Muslim Kashmiris (as published in 2018 report of UNHRC with adverse comments against Hindu majority India) will tie the hands of USA in favoring India on Kashmir.
Nobody says that India should not look-after its interests independently, but India will be well advised to see its interests INDEPENDENTLY in the back-drop of impending said Jew-Sunni v/s Shia Iran war which will be facilitated by USA, during which India will have to do fine-balancing act between USA and China and their allies.