Hem Raj Jain
Sub:- Pakistan will utilize Musharraf for Indo (Kashmir)- AF – Pak region.
Ref:- (i)- Indo (Kashmir) – AF - Pak region will start changing after Pak elections, in view of 2014 US troops withdrawal from Afghanistan
(ii)- Musharraf will be voice in Pakistan for the interests of USA, Pak Military / ISI, Afghanistan and even China.
(iii)- For the first time in Pakistan there will be one person (Musharraf) who will be extremely influential in domestic / global affairs without government power.
(iv)- Pakistan will ensure that Musharraf is not overly harassed or curtailed through court cases.
(v)- AF – Pak Muslim fundamentalists will also not overly offend / attack Musharraf after some time, after seeing Muslim in Musharraf.
(vi)- India will find different Musharraf on Kashmir.
(vii)- India will have to alter its strategic / defense / foreign policy fundamentally, regarding Kashmir and ‘Arab-Spring’
On return of Musharraf to Pakistan on Sunday the entire Pakistan & international media and political commentators have rightly said that Musharraf (and his political party) may not get any spectacular or even noticeable success in coming May 11, 2013 elections in Pakistan. But most of these commentators have not realized that for the first time in Pakistan there will be one person (Musharraf) who will be extremely influential in domestic / global affairs without government power, for the reasons given below:-
(1)- Unless some unforeseen development takes place in international political scene, as the situation stands today the USA & its Allies shall withdraw their troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Notwithstanding what the governments of USA, Afghanistan and Pakistan may say to the contrary at that time of this withdrawal, but the influence of Pakistan (especially of its Military / ISI) is going to increase hugely in the domestic / foreign affairs of Afghanistan
(2)- Of-course the whimpering of India will not matter at all in this development for the simple reason that the relationship of India with USA is based on water (economic matters) whereas of Pakistan with USA is based on blood (In Afghanistan, Pakistan shed its blood for USA in winning ‘cold war’ for USA and again post 9/11 for Global war against terror’). And blood of Pakistan is thicker than water of India.
(3)- In such a situation Musharraf (the ex-Army Chief and ex-President) in public field will be the right person to be the voice in Pakistan for the interests of USA, Pak Military / ISI, Afghanistan and will also be a back-door channel for the reconciliation of the interests of these groups.
(4)- Though China is an old friend of Pakistan hence do not need any mediator but given the trust between China and Musharraf (in view of operation Lal – Masjid ordered by Musharraf where some Chinese were also hiding), even China may utilize the services of Musharraf to protect her interests in Pakistan (and in Indo – AF – Pak region) especially related to defense and strategic matters.
(5)- But India will find different Musharraf on Kashmir. Role of Musharraf in Kargil was forgotten when Musharraf became President and started talking (including through backdoor channels) about out-of- box solution to resolve the Kashmir dispute (Musharraf famously used to say that borders should become irrelevant).
(6) But now Musharraf will talk differently on Kashmir due to three reasons :-
(i)- Out of office, Musharraf will be under no pressure to solve the Kashmir problem in haste.
(ii)- The situation has changed in democratic Pakistan as is evident from this month resolution in Pakistan National Assembly on Kashmir where hanging of Afzal Guru was discussed and terrorists are now again termed (which was suspended temporarily under US pressure post 9/11) as ‘Kashmir freedom fighters’. This is bound to lead to increase in number of such so-called ‘freedom fighters’ in Kashmir from AF – Pak region.
(iii)- In view of threat to his life from fundamentalists, Musharraf said just after his arrival in Pakistan that he is as good a Muslims as any one in Pakistan (meaning fundamentalists). Otherwise also Muslim in Musharraf will not permit him to forget that for Kashmir (as per media reports) about one hundred thousand Muslims have lost their lives.
(7)- In such a changed situation India has no other option than to bring-about following fundamental changes in its strategic / defense / foreign policy regarding Kashmir and ‘Arab-Spring’.
(8)- In relation to Kashmir:-
(i)- First and foremost, India should realize that till Kashmiris (practicing same religion and speaking same language) are on two sides of the border / LOC Kashmir is under dispute Therefore without unification of Kashmir there is no soltin to Kashmir problem. For this, like Pakistan (as it did in 1947, 1948, 1971, during Kargil and through on-going proxy war), India should try to finish this dispute by retrieving Pakistani side of Kashmir POK (even militarily) within a time bound period of say two years.
(ii)- Before this retrieve, India will have to change the demography of J&K (Pakistan has already done it in POK) by abolishing Article 370 of Constitution and by rehabilitating hundreds of thousand of Displaced Kashmiri Pundits (DKP) along with Hindu protector -companions in Kashmir valley.
(9)- But such highly important geo-political change regarding territory and demography, India can not do unless militarily and economically powerful West concurs with it. This India can easily achieve if India helps the West in its mission of ‘Secular Democratic Globalization’.
(10)- Presently Western Christian world (USA & its European and European origin Allies) find itself in excruciating dilemma. West can’t go back on ‘Arab Spring’ in NAME countries due to ideological reasons. But at the same time can’t further promote it for the simple reason that of-their-own these Muslims countries are simply not only unable to work democracy but also due to the fact that in democracy, fundamentalism always gain ascendancy in a Muslim country, hence a threat to human rights in their countries and to neighboring countries too. In this matter (of ‘Arab – Spring’) India can help the West, NAME and other Muslim Countries as given below:-
(i)- This problem can be solved if West is persuaded by India to give-up its present gory military policy of hit & run and / or of supporting the rebels (which have terrorists also in their groups). Instead the West should develop elaborate mechanism of human rights enforcement and for ensuring democratic elections under UN approved constitution [chosen from 4 or 5 democratic models], through UN Election Commission and under UN Peace Keeping Force (UNPKF) and UN Election Force (UNEF), where-ever necessary.
(ii)- Also the Optional Protocol - 1 (OP1) of International Covenant of Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) - which presently allows intervention (including military) of UN in only those countries which blatantly violates human rights and have ratified this optional protocol – should be repealed and replaced by Mandatory Protocol MP -1 with elaborate enforcement mechanism (through UNPKF) in every member country.
(iii)- India can help the West by providing armed forces and others for UNPKF & UNEF [if India could provide 2 million persons, including combat element, to Britishers during World War I & II then there is no reason, why 1.2 Billion India cannot provide at-least 5 million persons for UNPKF & UNEF for furthering the cause of ‘Secular Democratic Globalization’]. But for this, UN has to be reconstituted where there will be no Veto power to any country and voting power to every member country as per its commitment to secular democratic principles of free society and as per contribution of money, resources men etc to UN.
Therefore India better wakes-up, if it does not want to be caught unawares.
Hem Raj Jain