SaAr, through Maulana, may create strong leverage for roping-in Pakistan in Shia-Sunni war with Iran
31 Oct 2019
Ditching of Maulana by PML (N) & PPP will be blessing in disguise for SaAr and Maulana, if Kashmir issue is raised: Recently two developments have shattered Saudi Arabia (SaAr) to its core. One on September 14, 2019 when about 60 % oil production facilities of SaAr were destroyed by drone & missile attacks. The strategic professionals say that militant outfit of Shia Houthis in Yemen do not have expertise and capabilities to carry-out such attack which means some government (possibly in league with Shia Iran) is responsible for this September 14 attack. Though SaAr (which purchased armaments worth hundreds of billions of Dollars mainly from USA for its defense) so far has not officially accused any country for this attack and is allegedly waiting for the investigating report by UN, but SaAr knows that the reputation of SaAr (which is considered to be the leader of Sunni world due to Mecca & Median on the soil of SaAr and huge financial resources with it due to Petro-dollars) has taken a severe beating after this September 14 attack not only across the world but especially among the Sunni world which constitute about 85 % Muslims population (Shias are only about 15 % of Muslim population).
How much this September, 14 has shattered SaAr is evident from the fact that (as discussed on Pak TV Channels) Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) the crown prince of SaAr asked Pak PM Imran Khan (when Imran met MBS at SaAr on his way while going for UNGA) that what Pakistan would have done if such attack (like of September, 14) had happened on Pakistan ? The frustration of MBS with Pakistan is all the more understandable because SaAr spent lot of resources for launching sort of Sunni-NATO of which Pakistan former Army Chief Gen. Raheel Sharif is the Commander. Pakistan has failed to understand that it could avoid the participation in Yemen conflict (of SaAr with Houthis supported by Iran) by a resolution passed by Pakistan National Assembly and which SaAr also did not take to its heart but September, 14 attack is altogether a different matter of profound implications. In a nut shell if Pakistan thinks that SaAr will allow Pakistan to get away with this September, 14 matter then it is in for big surprise.
The second development which has shattered SaAr (though it is not showing so openly rather feigning good relations with India) is the development in Kashmir on August 5, 2019 when India amended Article 370 repealed Article 35-A of Indian Constitution and converted the State of J&K into two Union Territories. As a leader of Sunni-Muslim world SaAr has spent huge resources in spreading Wahhabism (Salafism) in J&K too as reported also at https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/wahhabism-in-kashmir-tale-of-oil-money-from-saudi-arabia-gulf-119022001053_1.html . Hence the ‘annexation’ (as per Pakistan) of J&K by India by Modi Government (of Hindutva forces which is allegedly oppressing Muslims all across India for the last 6 years) is widely perceived in Muslim world as the suppression of Islam by Hinduism.
The Islam fears that now winter has set-in hence for another 5 months Kashmir can easily be kept under lock-down by Modi Government and by the end of 8 month's lock-down (since August 5, 2019), the moral of Kashmiris will be broken to such an extent by Indian security forces that PM Imran's policy (of making Kashmir another Bangladesh) of waiting for “bloodbath after curfew is lifted in Kashmir” will flop. Therefore, Islam now sees ‘Islam and Muslim majority J&K’ in grave danger.
This is such a situation which SaAr will exploit in its own interest and in the perceived interest of Islam and Muslim majority J&K through Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman of JUI-F [who is already on his way through Azadi (independence)-march to Islamabad where he will reach on November, 1 (started from Karachi on October 27, the day Pakistan observe as ‘Black Day’ the day when Indian Military entered J&K after ‘Instrument of Accession’ (IoA) was signed by ex-ruler of J&K with India]. SaAr can exploit this situation all the more easily because as per Pak media reports, the PML (N) and PPP the two main political parties who are supporting this Azadi-march did not join or greeted this march in expected numbers. This lack of support by PML (N) & PPP will prove a blessing in disguise for Maulana and SaAr.
As per Pak media PML (N) is already extracting its pound of flesh from Imran Government through Azadi-march (by way of bail to its leader Nawaz Shariff) and PPP has been assured, of the survival of its Government in Sindh Province, by Imran Government. Hence PML (N) and PPP will no more support Azadi-march / Jalsa (Public meeting) / Dharna (sit-in) anywhere near to the extent as was earlier promised to Maulana and which will leave no other alternative with Maulana than to agitate Kashmir issue (which Maulana has been raising all along before and during Azadi-march) and which is bound to bring tremendous support from all over Pakistan to Maulana at his Dharna at Islamabad [given the fact that Imran Government has failed miserably on Kashmir which is supposed to be ‘shah-rug’ (jugular-vein) of Pakistan and for which Pakistan has given lot of lives and blood].
Maulana has to only demand from Imran Government (or otherwise resign from Government) that Pak Military should be ordered to not obstruct at LoC the over million non-violent peace-march (in presence of International media) of the un-armed people of Pakistan side of J&K (AJK + Gilgit-Baltistan) to Srinagar (where they will offer arrest before Indian authorities) demanding immediate restoration of human rights of Kashmiris (and not for Kashmir solution) which are being denied to them since August 5, 2019. Once Maulana demands it at Dharna at Islamabad by saying that Islam & Muslim majority J&K [also due to Indian Defense Minister Rajnath’s public vow to now (after ‘annexing’ J&K by India) bring PoK to India] are in danger by Zionist forces (with the complicity of India and USA) then this is bound to create such political storm in Pakistan that (what to talk of Imran Government) it will put even Pak military on sever test.
It does not require a genius of political science to understand that this peace march of over a million people to Srinagar is bound to precipitate the demand of plebiscite in united J&K (which is mandatory even as per IoA and required also by UN resolution 1948 about J&K) which India may resist (under the unfounded fear of Hindutva forces that during plebiscite Muslims of united J&K will vote for Pakistan) and which may bring Pak military face to face with Indian military and this is precisely here that SaAr will be crucially needed by Pakistan. It goes without saying that in such situation SaAr can easily use this strong leverage for roping-in Pakistan in Shia-Sunni war which is being fought in entire NAME region (including in Syria, Yemen Iraq etc).
It will be naïve on the part of political commentators and observers if they think that SaAr will not support Maulana (in his Peace-march, Jalsa, and Dharna) in every way (including financial resources which SaAr can easily provide to Maulana through Islamic infrastructure in Pakistan) in order to constrain Pakistan to provide military support (including boots on ground) to SaAr which is single-handedly pursuing this avoidable Shia-Sunni war with Iran.