When former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif delivered speech on September 20 to ‘All Party Conference’ the APC (after which ‘Pakistan Democratic Movement’ the PDM was launched ) in which he criticized & blamed Pakistan military (so-called establishment) for interfering in politics including by coups, election rigging, influencing higher judiciary, manipulations for bringing incompetent PM Imran in power etc - the people thought that Nawaz was already looking-out for an opportunity for political rehabilitation and this opportunity was provided by angry Saudi Arabia (SaAr, after Pak Foreign Minister Qureshi criticized SaAr for not supporting Kashmir cause in the OIC especially after what India did in J&K & Ladakh on and after August 5, 2019) hence SaAr is supporting the PDM through Maulana Fazal-ur-Rehman also (the President of JUI-F, who is close to SaAr due to Islamic connections through Maulana run Madrassas and its finances etc) in addition to good relation of Nawaz too with SaAr (hence Nawaz is repeatedly criticizing Imran government for offending SaAr).
On October 1 during a PML-N rally in Lahore the people were surprised when a party leader said (invoking provincialism) that the Government has violated the self-respect of Punjabis by doing what it did to a Punjabi leader Nawaz (by way of illegally removing him from power, putting him in prison, initiating false criminal cases etc). But the perspicacious people knew that it was meant to send a signal to Pak military (mainly from Punjab) that the support base of Pak military (the Punjab province) will not like / tolerate a Punjabi PM (Nawaz) to be humiliated and illtreated. After two such addresses by Nawaz this time to his party, on October 5 a FIR was registered for sedition etc by Lahore police against over 40 office bearers of PML-N (including PM Nawaz and sitting PM of AJK) though afterwards due to controversies it was cancelled on the ground of lack of evidence against all these office bearers except Nawaz [but the name of any of these over 40 office bearers of PML-N can always be brought back in FIR either by police (when it finds ‘credible evidence’) or through court order which can be procured (on the instigation of ruling party) by the complainant by contesting the name removal of the accused from said FIR].
But on October 16 all the veils were lifted and now the battle lines have been drawn and the war is in the open through the speeches of Nawaz and Maulana at a well-attended public meeting of the PDM at Gujranwala. Here Nawaz went one step further to accuse serving Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa by name for various crimes (of interference in politics and in civil establishment) and threatened him that he will be brought to justice for these crimes. Nawaz said General Bajwa is responsible for gift to Pakistan of incompetent PM Imran, for getting his (Nawaz) government illegally removed, for horse trading of members of Parliament, for getting illegal judgments from higher judiciary through intimidation, honest judges of higher judiciary were harassed at your (Gen. Bajwa) behest, for all the economic suffering of the people including raised electricity & gas bills, non-availability of medicines, costly bread & other food items, unemployment, price rise of wheat & sugar through hoarding etc due to incompetent government of PM Imran which was installed by Gen. Bajwa through rigging of elections etc. Maulana (on who’s Jihadis the PDM is depending immensely for ground political mobilization and even militant mobilization) was equally scathing and said that the Pak military will have to apologize for said criminal interference in politics.
Not only the Pakistan Army will not tolerate such accusations by name against serving Army Chief but China will also not allow the dilution of power of Pak military which is the best guarantee not only for CPEC & Gwadar port but also for Chinese democracy against Western democracy in Pakistan. Earlier in Pakistan the task of China was much easier [Even if all the opposition parties resigned from State & National Assemblies which is claimed by APC to create serious problem for government and the so-called establishment what China had to do was to simply ask Pak government & its military to arrest all these people’s representatives & office bearers of the opposition parties of Pakistan and in due course of time this PDM would have fizzle-out as mentioned at https://www.pakistanchristianpost.com/opinion-details/3673 ].
But now in view of statements of Nawaz-Maulana on October 16 at Gujranwala the PDM will also not rest (seems due to some assured outside support) UNLESS THE MATTERS ARE SETTLED WITH PAK MILITARY. Even if PPP or some other members of PDM leave the PDM and even if some leaders leave the PML-N the situation will not change for the simple reason that any fight with Pak military can’t be fought with the help of exclusively secular forces in theocratic Pakistan. Hence some Sunni-Ayatollah (like Shia-Ayatollah of Iran) will be needed and this can be either Maulana in Pakistan and if he is arrested by the government then it can be some Sunni-Ayatollah heading government in exile from out of Pakistan. The Head of the PDM, Maulana has already said in his Gujranwala speech that the PDM is prepared to give blood (in addition to sweat) for realizing the objectives of the PDM. This leaves only two options / strategies with the PDM:-
(i)- To fill up the prison by demanding the resignation of the Imran government and for fresh elections for National and State Assemblies. But this will not serve the purpose of the PDM because this is what China wants for the success of Chinese democracy in Pakistan where the entire opposition will be in prison posing no threat to the government on streets.
(ii)- Another alternative (in the real sense of the term) is only civil war by the PDM in order to overwhelm the Pak military for establishing Western democracy in Pakistan (without secularism) as is the case in Iran.
It of-course has a risk of bringing martial law / military rule in Pakistan but it is worth taking for the PDM because it has an immense advantage to the PDM which can always say that the coward Pak military pressurized Imran government to not take military action against India (for what India did on August 5, 2019 in the State of J&K) hence the PDM (Sunni-Ayatollah) will see to it that Pak military is used to snatch remaining J&K from India in order to bring succor to Muslims in J&K. This, as an crucial advantage to the PDM, will thoroughly discredit Pak military in the eyes of not only the people of theocratic Pakistan but also of the entire Muslim world.
It goes without saying that the PDM cannot do it alone without outside support and this is precisely here that the US - ally the SaAr (and its allies) will be crucial (through which all the allies of Sunni-Ayatollah will help the PDM militarily & financially) in the interest of the military victory of the PDM against Pak military. This also goes without saying that though the said emerging dangerous & explosive situation is bound to suck-in the neighbors of Pakistan (India / united J&K, Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asia) but India will be the most important due to the Kashmir factor.
In this situation the policies of India will be hugely influenced by the new / changed incumbent at the White House in the USA. Democrats in White House will of course see huge change in US foreign policies. As far as Trump if he wins, his policies will also change immensely because Trump in his second term as President will not need money from Jews / Israel for another election which will hugely change his Middle East policies having SaAr too in it. Moreover, Trump in his second term will not need votes of Americans hence no need for populist / majoritarian policies (hence no problem in putting US boots on ground). The USA will have to be proactive this time for the simple reason that the defeat of Western democracy in Pakistan at the hands of Chinese democracy will lead to defeat & stoppage of Western democracy in rest of Asia, Africa and Latin America and which will be fatally harmful to US-interests.
It is hoped that the USA will not remain a passive spectator after November 3 Presidential elections and instead will take proactive interest for protecting Western democracy (and not merely Ayatollah type of democracy) in Pakistan which is facing severe threat from Chinese democracy in addition to catastrophic threat of nuclear flare-up in the region.