With Pakistan fixed & Coup in Myanmar, after incursion in Eastern Ladakh & farmer’s agitation, India low hanging fruit (despite USA) for China. By Hem Raj Jain
03 Feb 2021
Sub: - The USA still does not understand the formidable threat of ‘authoritarian Chinese democracy’ to ‘liberal Western democracy’ especially in the developing World.
-- In the end of September after UNGA 2020 when the entire world was struggling due to Corona - pandemic the people saw emergent & confident China which has become an irresistible attraction for the developing world due to unprecedented economic progress achieved by Chinese democracy (that too in Asia). It was then clearly visible to the perspicacious political observers of the entire world that if the leader of free world, the USA doesn’t do anything for making liberal secular Western democracy successful especially in developing world then it will be impossible for the West led by the USA to stop the juggernaut of the Chinese democracy as mentioned at :-
In 2020-21 three major developments have taken place in Indo-Pacific region in favor of China (i)- India (which the USA tried to use as a strategic & military partner to contain China including by QUAD) has been humbled and humiliated by Chinese incursions in Eastern Ladakh which has sent a message to the entire world that the USA will have to look for someone else than India to contain China (ii)- As expected the 'Pakistan Democratic Movement’ (PDM) has lost the steam and the opposition parties not only could not dislodge allegedly military-inflicted Imran government from office but has also started participating in various elections under such 'illegitimate' government (iii)- Military coup in Myanmar supported by China as mentioned at https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/01/is-china-backing-myanmar-coup-biden-united-states/ and https://thehill.com/policy/international/536769-us-joins-international-condemnation-of-military-coup-in-myanmar
But the climax of this war between Chinese democracy against Western democracy in the theater of the most important nuclear developing world, is yet to come. It will come when India will fall in the lap of China (if the USA doesn’t wake-up) by the time the problems are resolved generated by the on-going farmer’s agitation (which has raised serious question mark on the very viability of existing political process of India), as mentioned below:-
(1)- In India the small & marginal land holdings (up to 2 Hectares) are 86.2 % of total land holdings and medium land holdings (from 2 to 4 Hectares) are 13.2 %. The farmer’s agitation in India is about the livelihood of two third India (the farm-laborers + farmers with 145 million land holdings, same number of families whose livelihood is fully or partly dependent on agriculture). Due to nonremunerative prices of agriculture produce, hundreds of thousands of farmers have committed suicide. But majority of these people in the agriculture sector are from oppressed & backward castes of Hindu order (institutionalized by reservation with this demoralizing-tag) hence their problems were neglected for decades (though they have been agitating in different parts of India in smaller numbers).
(2)- This time the farmer’s agitation is attracting the attention of the government & the country because hundreds of thousands of agitating farmers have encircled India’s capital Delhi and they can’t be dispersed because they (from Punjab, Haryana and Western U.P.) are economically better than farmers of rest of India and at the top of it supported by Punjabi (Sikh) farmers through their infrastructure of Gurudwara-langars etc [allegedly supported by money also from foreign countries (including by some Khalistanis through Pakistan too) and opposition parties].
(3)- The Modi government is out of wits & clues as to how to handle farmer’s agitation which does not have any link with Muslims of India or Kashmiri Muslims or Muslim Pakistan (because Modi government knows to deal with only one type of problem / issue which is by arousing Hindu sentiments against Muslims). Though majority of agitating farmers are Hindus (who can be influenced by Hindutva forces) but their real strength is Sikh farmers from Punjab who are not susceptible & amenable to Hindutva influence [32 farmer's trade unions out of 40 of 'Samyukta Kisan Morcha' (SKM) are from Punjab]
(4)- Without solving the problem of small farm land holdings, the Modi government (obviously so far unsuccessfully) has been trying to boost the economy of India but this vast population of India (related with agriculture) can easily be aroused by opposition parties hence they have been obstructing land acquisition acts etc with the result acquiring lands for big industry and for other economic needs have become a huge problem and which is scuttling the growth of Indian economy. Now the agitating farmers are taking their agitation all across India which will create huge problems for the government because farmers from all over India are now expecting legally enforceable 'Minimum Support Price' (MSP) for all the items and the government can’t afford to do it in the GIVEN situation.
(5)- India can of-course provide legally enforceable MSP and can usher into unprecedented economic progress (i)- If gets respite from the cross-border threats from its two neighbors (China & Pakistan) and (ii)- If democracy is suspended for some time by imposing economic emergency (which can be extended to any length of time by adopting Chinese democracy in place of Western democracy) to enforce economic policies including labor reforms, hire & fire policy etc (which as per Hindutva forces too will bring unprecedented economic progress to India).
6)- This is precisely where China can help India (as far as Pakistan, it can easily be managed by China and with the support of China, India can easily resist pressure from the West led by the USA which will come when India will officially adopt Chinese democracy). This farmer’s agitation has already given enough excuse to government and will give more of it in future for bringing Chinese democracy in India which will give golden opportunity to India to achieve unprecedented economy progress (as achieved by China) :-
(i)- By recovery of the State-capital of Rs about 1,000 Trillion (Lakh Crore) from about 1 million fake farmers and which the GoI is not recovering (as discussed in Parliament too in 2016 as reported at https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Prominent-people-hiding-taxable-income-Jaitley/articleshow/51408323.cms ) because these about 1 million tax evaders are presently politically very powerful. But in Chinese democracy the political clout of these about one million fake farmers would go away and India would be able to easily recover this huge State capital.
(ii)- In addition to said about Rs 1,000 Trillion State-capital (45 % of over 2,200 Trillion and increasing), under Chinese democracy India can easily forfeit public debts of the governments beyond their consolidated funds which is in violation of Article 292 & 293 of the Constitution and which have been incurred by taking excuse of unconstitutional FRBM (Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management) Act.
(iii)- This huge State-capital (with all these ‘irritants’ of half-conceived & ill-implemented Western democracy gone, by bringing a variant of Chinese democracy in India) is bound to make India an economic super power in the real sense of the term. India already knows how to do it and if not then China will always be there to ‘guide’ India, how to do it. India will also have one tremendous advantage if it adopts Chinese democracy in place of Western democracy. The USA abhors State-capital (though does not mind incurring huge public debt (State-capital) of tens of trillions of Dollars and then practically squandering it) but China does not. Hence it will be easy to use said huge State-capital by India for the unprecedented economic progress of India under Chinese democracy.
(7)- As far as large number of protesters in this farmer’s agitation on streets, any body who knows any thing about India knows that (even during emergency in and after 1975) it was only the then PM Indira Gandhi who lifted emergency (for the reasons best known to her) without any pressure on her to do so. Otherwise not a leaf was fluttering due to opposition, some leaders of which were put in jail by her. Similarly now also few hundred farmer’s leaders etc need to be put in jail after declaring economic emergency and this agitation will fizzle-out. Moreover the Hindutva forces have always liked an absolute centralized political model which only Chinese democracy can give and not the Western democracy which keeps on pestering for genuine federal structure.
(8)- Only fools or political naivete will waste such a golden opportunity (which the on-going farmer’s agitation has provided) to consolidate the political power that too through unprecedented economic progress by replacing orphan Western democracy by well regulated Chinese democracy. To be sure, the Hindutva forces are neither.
Therefore, in view of on-going farmer’s agitation, it will be interesting to watch how the West led by the USA (with new Biden-administration) will stop India, the low hanging fruit, falling in the lap of China, which has been achieving one victory after another in Indo-Pacific region (as is evident from Pakistan which has been fixed and military coup in Myanmar, after Chinese unopposed military incursion in Eastern Ladakh of India).